Preseason Rankings
Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#75
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.1#121
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#71
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#93
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.9% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.9% 1.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.7% 29.0% 14.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.7% 8.9% 2.2%
Average Seed 11.3 11.1 12.9
.500 or above 85.8% 89.0% 68.8%
.500 or above in Conference 83.9% 86.2% 71.7%
Conference Champion 27.1% 29.2% 15.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.2% 4.1%
First Four3.4% 3.7% 1.9%
First Round25.2% 27.4% 13.9%
Second Round9.3% 10.4% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.4% 3.8% 1.5%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.4% 0.3%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Home) - 84.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.2 - 0.70.2 - 0.7
Quad 1b0.5 - 1.20.7 - 1.9
Quad 22.6 - 3.33.3 - 5.2
Quad 38.0 - 4.211.3 - 9.4
Quad 48.2 - 1.119.5 - 10.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 179   Florida Gulf Coast W 81-73 84%    
  Nov 10, 2018 109   @ Belmont W 76-73 51%    
  Nov 13, 2018 350   Chicago St. W 89-66 99%    
  Nov 19, 2018 80   Georgia W 68-67 52%    
  Nov 20, 2018 184   Akron W 77-69 76%    
  Nov 21, 2018 95   Boise St. W 74-72 56%    
  Nov 28, 2018 63   BYU L 71-73 55%    
  Dec 01, 2018 45   San Diego St. L 72-75 48%    
  Dec 05, 2018 181   @ Illinois-Chicago W 80-72 66%    
  Dec 08, 2018 118   Mississippi W 79-76 71%    
  Dec 16, 2018 281   Cleveland St. W 79-66 91%    
  Dec 21, 2018 55   @ Central Florida L 66-68 32%    
  Jan 02, 2019 120   @ Valparaiso W 75-71 51%    
  Jan 05, 2019 196   Evansville W 72-63 84%    
  Jan 08, 2019 116   Northern Iowa W 68-65 70%    
  Jan 12, 2019 67   @ Loyola Chicago L 70-71 35%    
  Jan 15, 2019 104   Southern Illinois W 73-70 68%    
  Jan 19, 2019 196   @ Evansville W 72-63 70%    
  Jan 23, 2019 117   @ Bradley W 71-68 51%    
  Jan 27, 2019 161   Indiana St. W 77-71 78%    
  Jan 30, 2019 202   @ Drake W 78-69 69%    
  Feb 02, 2019 67   Loyola Chicago L 70-71 57%    
  Feb 05, 2019 120   Valparaiso W 75-71 70%    
  Feb 10, 2019 190   @ Missouri St. W 75-67 66%    
  Feb 13, 2019 116   @ Northern Iowa W 68-65 51%    
  Feb 16, 2019 117   Bradley W 71-68 70%    
  Feb 20, 2019 161   @ Indiana St. W 77-71 61%    
  Feb 24, 2019 202   Drake W 78-69 84%    
  Feb 27, 2019 190   Missouri St. W 75-67 81%    
  Mar 02, 2019 104   @ Southern Illinois W 73-70 49%    
Projected Record 19.5 - 10.5 11.7 - 6.3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 6.3 7.0 5.5 3.1 1.2 27.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.9 6.7 4.8 1.7 0.1 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 5.0 5.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.8 4.6 3.7 1.2 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 3.7 3.2 0.6 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.9 2.8 4.3 5.8 7.9 10.3 11.0 12.5 12.1 11.5 8.7 5.7 3.1 1.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 100.0% 3.1    3.1 0.0
16-2 97.6% 5.5    4.9 0.6
15-3 80.0% 7.0    5.0 1.9 0.1
14-4 55.3% 6.3    3.5 2.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 25.2% 3.1    1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.1% 27.1 18.8 6.7 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 97.3% 77.0% 20.3% 5.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.4%
17-1 3.1% 89.0% 56.8% 32.2% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 74.5%
16-2 5.7% 76.1% 47.8% 28.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.4 54.2%
15-3 8.7% 58.9% 39.9% 19.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.6 31.6%
14-4 11.5% 38.2% 28.6% 9.7% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.1 13.5%
13-5 12.1% 26.7% 23.2% 3.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 8.9 4.5%
12-6 12.5% 18.6% 17.7% 0.9% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.2 1.0%
11-7 11.0% 14.0% 13.8% 0.2% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 9.5 0.2%
10-8 10.3% 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 9.4 0.0%
9-9 7.9% 6.3% 6.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.4
8-10 5.8% 4.9% 4.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.6
7-11 4.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.1
6-12 2.8% 1.7% 1.7% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
5-13 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
4-14 0.7% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-15 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 26.7% 20.6% 6.2% 11.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.5 2.1 5.0 6.3 4.2 2.4 1.4 0.6 73.3 7.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.0 36.8 31.1 23.4 8.7